LANL Uncertainty Quantification Working Group
and Related Special Seminars and Meetings Meetings

Future Meetings

May 27, 2004
11:30 AM, CNLS Conf. Room, TA-3, Bldg. 1690
The myth of science-based predictive modeling
Francois M. Hemez, ESA-WR

Previous Meetings

May 13, 2004
Determining PTW parameters from experimental data
Ken Hanson, CCS-2
(abstract) (slides)

April 29, 2004
Model calibration methods for phase diagram determination
Brian J. Reardon, ESA-WR, and Marius Stan, MST-8
(abstract) (slides)

April 14, 2004 -- ESA Weapon Response Group Seminar
Diversity and unity of uncertainty theories
George J. Klir, SUNY-Binghamton
Technical Hosts: Jane Booker and Tim Ross

February 5, 2004
Tutorial on the Kalman filter and the extended Kalman filter - Part II
John M. Finn, T-15
(abstract) (slides)

January 22, 2004
Tutorial on the Kalman filter and the extended Kalman filter - Part I
John M. Finn, T-15
(abstract) (slides)

January 8, 2004
Use of the extended Kalman filter in quantification of margin and uncertainty, Part II: Parameter identification
Jim Kao, X-4

December 11, 2003
Uncertainty quantification for Homeland Security applications
Jeffrey Favorite, X-5
(abstract) (slides)

November 13, 2003
Uncertainty in simulations: an inverse theory approach
Richard Strelitz, Advanced Computing Lab, CCS-1

October 2, 2003
The use of the extended Kalman filter in Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty (QMU)
Chih Y. (Jim) Kao, X-4
(abstract) (preprint)

September 18, 2003
Halftoning and quasi-Monte Carlo
Ken Hanson, CCS-2
(abstract) (slides)

June 5, 2003
Info-gap decision theory for design and planning
Yakov Ben-Haim, Technion — Israel Institute of Technology
(abstract) Co-sponsored by T-7 & ESA-WR; contact Mac Hyman or Francois Hemez.

May 15, 2003
Estimating the error and modeling uncertainty in simulation prediction over a domain of validation
Francois M. Hemez, ESA-WR
(abstract) (slides)

May 1, 2003
Data interrogation and extreme value statistics for health monitoring of engineered systems
Hoon Sohn, ESA-WR
(abstract) (slides, 3.9 MB)

April 24, 2003 -- Special ESA Seminar
Probability theory and fuzzy logic
Lotfi A. Zadeh, University of California, Berkeley
(abstract) (announcement) (slides, 1137 KB)

April 17, 2003
Verification of calculations using the grid convergence index for structural finite-element analyses
Ryan D. Maupin, ESA-WR

April 14, 2003 -- Special CCS/CNLS Seminar
Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations: Algorithms and applications
Max Gunzberger, Florida State University
(abstract) (slides, 4.0 MB)

March 20, 2003
The statistical mechanics and thermodynamics of data assimilation
Frank Alexander, CCS-3

February 6, 2003
Uncertain reconstruction in remote-sensing due to 3D variability and the associated risk of false model validation: Illustration with clouds or plumes
Anthony Davis (NIS-2)

December 12, 2002
Developing information-gap models of uncertainty for test-analysis correlation
Francois Hemez, ESA-WR
(abstract), (view graphs)

October 31, 2002
Uncertainty quantification in nuclear-data evaluation
Patrick Talou, T-16
(abstract) (view graphs)

October 3, 2002
Parameter inference for a material model
Ken Hanson, CCS-2
(abstract)(view graphs)

September 9 & 10, 2002 -- Internal LANL Workshop
Workshop on Quantification of Uncertainties in Physics Simulations (QUIPS)
Ken Hanson, Chair
(meeting summary)

July 25, 2002
Using random fields to quantify the geometric shape uncertainties of spherical marine floats
plus a demonstration of the NESSUS application

Jason E. Pepin (ESA-WR) and Ben H. Thacker (Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX)

June 27, 2002
Use of Probability Gradients in Hybrid MCMC and a New Convergence Test
Ken Hanson, CCS-2
(abstract), (view graphs)

May 30, 2002
Simulation of subsurface contamination flow
Dave Higdon, D-1

May 16, 2002
Nonstationary stochastic theories and applications to subsurface flow and transport
Don Zhang, EES-6

May 2, 2002
Data assimilation with extended Kalman filter
Jim Kao, X-4

April 4, 2002
Linking probability and fuzzy set theories using likelihoods, membership functions, and Bayes theorem
Jane Booker, ESA-WR

March 21, 2002
Novel uncertainty quantification methods based on Generalized Information Theory
Cliff Joslyn, CCS-3
(abstract) (workshop description)

February 21, 2002
Random fields as an alternative to Monte Carlo and analytical methods for uncertainty and reliability analyses
David Robinson (Risk and Reliability Analysis Dept., Sandia National Labs, Albuquerque)
(abstract) (view graphs)

January 10, 2002
Effective error estimates for quasi-Monte-Carlo calculations
Tony Warnock, CCS-3
(abstract) (view graphs)

December 13, 2001
A hierarchical model for estimating the reliability of complex systems
Val Johnson, D-1

November 29, 2001
Quality assurance methods for probabilistic risk analysis: bounding exceedance probabilities
Scott Ferson (Applied Biomathematics)
(abstract) (view graphs)

November 14, 2001
The hazard potential of items and individuals
Nozer Singpurwalla (George Washington University)

October 18, 2001
CRAX/Cassandra uncertainty and reliability analysis software
David Robinson (Sandia National Labs, Albuquerque)
(abstract) (view graphs)

October 4, 2001
DAKOTA/UQ: A toolkit for uncertainty quantification in a multiphysics, massively parallel computational environment
Steve Wojtkiewicz (Sandia National Labs, Albuquerque)
(abstract) (view graphs)

September 20, 2001 Automatic-Differentiation-produced sensitivities for evaluation of simulation codes
Rudy Henninger (CCS-2)

August 30 -- Special ESA Lecture Series Information-Gap Theory, lecture series given by Prof. Yakov Ben-Haim of the Technion.
See announcement for information. Sponsored by ESA-EA; his host is Francois Hemez.

August 23, 2001
Eliciting and representing experts’ conceptual knowledge Laura McNamara and Jerry Morzinski (D-1)
August 9, 2001
Lessons and innovations from a case study in optimization under uncertainty
Vicente J. Romero (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque)

July 26, 2001
Open discussion of strategies for improving the usefulness of UQWG.

June 28, 2001
1) A definition of model uncertainty and
2) One view of total uncertainty
Mark Anderson (DX-5)
(view graphs)

May 17, 2001
Integrated analysis of computational and physical experimental data
Shane Reese (D-1)

March 15, 2001
Large-scale optimization algorithms for inverse problems in atmospheric imaging
Curt Vogel (Dept. Math. Sci., Montana State Univ.)
(abstract) (view graphs)

March 8, 2001
Markov Chain Monte Carlo - Tutorial and recent results with the Hamiltonian (hybrid) method
Ken Hanson (DX-3)
MCMC tutorial: view graphs
Hamiltonian method: view graphs

Feburary 22, 2001
Obvious and not-so-obvious sources of uncertainty in hydrodynamic calculations
Bill Rider (CCS-2) A framework for quantifying uncertainties in numerical solutions of hyperbolic conservation laws Karen Pao (CCS-3)

January 25, 2001
Identification of important variables
Mike McKay (D-1) (view graphs)

January 11, 2001
Bayesian analysis of Rossi traces
Ken Hanson (DX-3), 0 min (view graphs) Case study: Evaluating thermodynamic models - A Bayesian approach
Marius Stan (MST-8), 35 min

November 16, 2000
Orthogonal arrays for efficient experiment planning
Lisa Moore (TSA-1)
Discussion of uncertainty terminology; or how do we talk to one another?
(view graphs)
Facilitated by Jane Booker (TSA-1)

November 2, 2000
Validation of engineering applications at LANL
Francois Hemez (ESA-EA)
(view graphs)
Case Study - A more complex engineering validation problem,
Francois Hemez (ESA-EA)

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