Uncertainty Quantification Working Group
Dec. 13, 11:30 AM, CNLS Conf. Room, TA-3, Bldg. 1690

A Hierarchical Model for Estimating the Reliability of Complex Systems

Val Johnson, D-1 (valen@lanl.gov)


We describe a model for assessing the reliability of complex systems comprised of multiple components. Components of the system are assumed to be linked together through a known reliability diagram (i.e., a fault tree). Both serial and parallel configurations of subcomponents are permitted. Novel features of this model are the natural manner in which failure data collected at either the component or subcomponent level can be incorporated into the posterior distribution, and the pooling of failure information across similar subcomponents within the same or related systems. An example involving the performance of an anti-aircraft missile defense system is used to illustrate the methodology.

The author's web page: http://www.lanl.gov/orgs/d/d1/people/vjohnson.shtml