Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, A. Mohammad-Djafari, ed., AIP Conf. Proc. 568, pp. 604-614 (AIP, Melville, NY, 2001)

Inference from Rossi traces

Kenneth M. Hanson and Jane M. Booker
Los Alamos National Laboratory


We will present an approach to analyzing Rossi traces that is grounded in calculating the likelihood of the points read from the film. This likelihood is evaluated by using a suitable model for the uncertainties in the readings of the film, based on the distance of the measured points to a predicted Rossi trace. Simple inferences about the uncertainties in the alpha curve are carried out using the curvature with respect to the model parameters of the log-posterior probability at the maximum-likelihood solution.

Keywords: Rossi technique, Bayesian inference, uncertainty estimation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Rossi alpha, smoothing splines, hyperparameter estimation

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