Workshop on Quantification of Uncertainties in Physics Simulations - QUIPS

September 9 & 10, 2002 at LANL

Workshop Synopsis

The unclassified Synopsis for the QUIPS Workshop includes the final program and abstracts of the papers presented.

Executive Summary

The Workshop on Quantification of Uncertainties in Physics Simulations (QUIPS), held at the Los Alamos National Laboratory on September 9 and 10, 2002, brought together nearly 150 LANL scientists. The presentations and discussions covered a wide variety of applications, ranging from simulations of simple hydrodynamics and material dynamics to simulations of nuclear weapons. The workshop successfully met its primary goal of promoting discussions among LANL scientists about the problems associated with quantifying uncertainties in physics-based simulation calculations. The workshop made an important step toward developing a sense of common purpose among those engaged in different applications. This common interest should be fostered through local seminars, such as the Uncertainty Quantification Working Group seminar series. It would be valuable to hold further seminars and workshops, involving not only the LANL community, but also other DOE laboratories, to improve our understanding of the problems associated with uncertainty quantification of simulation codes, and how to solve them.

Workshop Description

The purpose of this workshop is to promote a Laboratory-wide discussion of the quantification of uncertainties in predictions made by physics-based simulation codes. The issues to be discussed include identification of perceived needs for uncertainty quantification, examples of approaches that have been used to assess simulation uncertainties, and new approaches to solving the problem. We wish to involve all those who play a role in the uncertainty quantification process, including experimentalists, physics modelers, code developers and users, computer scientists, engineers, statisticians, and analysts.

The program will be structured to provide ample time for discussion. One of the outcomes of the meeting will be a short written summary of the concerns discussed and suggestions for their solution.

Program Committee

Ken Hanson (CCS-2), Bob Benjamin (DX-3), Jane Booker (ESA-WR), Shuh-Rong Chen (MST-8), François Hemez (ESA-WR), Val Johnson (D-1), Jim Kamm (CCS-2), Jim Kao (X-4), Jack Shlachter (P-22), Dave Sharp (T-13), and Merri Wood-Schultz (X-2).
If you are interested in uncertainty analysis, participate in the
Uncertainty Quantification Working Group.

Go to Ken Hanson's home page for information about previous LANL short courses on Bayesian analysis and uncertainty quantification.
Last modified 25 November 2002