*Nucl. Sci. Eng.* **153**, pp. 1-7 (2006)

## Evaluation and Propagation of the ^{239}Pu fission cross-section uncertainties using a Monte Carlo technique

T. Kawano, K.M. Hanson, S.C. Frankle, P. Talou, M.B. Chadwick, R.C. Little

Los Alamos National Laboratory

### Abstract

We present an approach to uncertainty quantification for nuclear applications,
which combines the covariance evaluation of differential cross-sections
data and the error propagation from matching a criticality experiment using a
neutron-transport calculation. We have studied the reduction in uncertainty
of ^{239}Pu fission cross sections by using a one-dimensional neutron-transport
calculation with the PARTISN code. The evaluation of ^{239}Pu differential
cross-section data is combined with a criticality measurement (Jezebel) using
a Bayesian method. To quantify the uncertainty in such calculations, we
generate a set of random samples of the cross sections, which represents the
covariance matrix, and estimate the distribution of calculated quantities, such
as criticality. We show that inclusion of the Jezebel data reduces uncertainties
in estimating neutron multiplicity.

**Keywords:** 239Pu fission cross section evaluation, JEZEBEL, criticality experiment, Bayesian updating, correlation matrix, posterior predictive distribution, Monte Carlo sampling, uncertainty prediction

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Send e-mail to author at kmh@lanl.gov