We will present an approach to analyzing Rossi traces that is grounded in calculating the likelihood of the points read from the film. This likelihood is evaluated by using a suitable model for the uncertainties in the readings of the film, based on the distance of the measured points to a predicted Rossi trace. Simple inferences about the uncertainties in the alpha curve are carried out using the curvature with respect to the model parameters of the log-posterior probability at the maximum-likelihood solution.
Keywords: Rossi technique, Bayesian inference, uncertainty estimation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Rossi alpha, smoothing splines, hyperparameter estimation
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